PIMCO：5年內 全球衰退機率逾60%
全球經濟體負債水位處高檔，PIMCO預測未來3至5年內衰退機率逾6成，同步削減美債部位。圖/美聯社
|
全球最大債券基金公司太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）警告，有鑑於全球經濟體的負債水位處於高檔，未來3到5年內全球衰退的機率超過6成，呼籲投資人應減少風險投資。
PIMCO投資組合經理人帕瑞克（Saumil Parikh）周二在公司官網張貼報告指出，全球經濟成長腳步將放緩，連帶使通膨降溫，「經濟波動」恐愈演愈烈，因此投資人不宜為追求高報酬而過度承擔高風險。
帕瑞克在報告中說：「世界經濟約莫每6年經歷一次衰退，每當全球負債水平從高檔開始滑落，全球衰退的頻率就有增加趨勢﹔反之負債水平從低點開始攀升，衰退頻率就會降低。」
帕瑞克表示：「基於上回全球衰退發生在4年前，且現今全球經濟體的負債水位明顯高於4年前，我們認為往後3到5年內，全球有60％以上的機率再度面臨衰退。」
美國去年負債占國內生產毛額（GDP）比重，由2011年的99.4％爬升到101.6％﹔日本負債在GDP的占比更是飆破200％。
另外，根據其官網，PIMCO總回報基金在5月份將美債部位削減2個百分點。在這個由債券天王葛洛斯操盤、總額2,850億美元的基金，美國公債如今所占權重縮水到37％，低於4月的39％。該支基金同時出脫部分投資級債券、美國以外的已開發市場債券、新興市場債券和地方政府債券。今年以來，Pimco總回報基金已虧損1.25％。
不過帕瑞克指出，澳洲、紐西蘭、瑞典、墨西哥和巴西等國發行的政府公債，最具投資吸引力。美國、巴西、義大利及智利所發行的抗通膨、長天期債券也浮現獲利機會。
股票方面，PIMCO青睞新興市場股票，例如中國非金融類股、西班牙與愛爾蘭企業的股票。帕瑞克建議應減持日本、美國、德國、澳洲和墨西哥等市場的股票，因為股價過高且這些地區成長前景並不明朗。
帕瑞克表示，基本上無論股票或債券價格目前都偏高，尤其是美國的股買票與債券，投資人應有收益偏低的心理準備。新興市場股票的投報率雖起伏不定，但平均收益率不低。
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100808186
Pimco Sees 60% Chance of Global Recession in 3-5 Years
Published: Tuesday, 11 Jun 2013 | 11:18 PM ETc By: Dhara Ranasinghe
High debt levels have raised the chances
of a global recession in the next three to five years to more than 60
percent, said Pimco, which manages the world's largest bond fund.
The world economy goes through a recession about every six years and the frequency of global recessions tends to rise when global indebtedness is high and falling compared with when indebtedness is low and rising, Pacific Investment Management Co (Pimco) said in a note published on its website late Tuesday.
"Given that the last global recession was four years ago, and also given that the global economy is significantly more indebted today than it was four years ago, we believe there is now a greater than 60 percent probability that we will experience another global recession in the next three to five years," Saumil H. Parikh, a managing director and generalist portfolio manager at Pimco said in the note.
The U.S. had a debt to GDP ratio of about 101.6 in 2012, up from 99.4 in 2011. Japan, the world's third largest economy after China and the U.S., has a debt to GDP ratio of more than 200 percent.
The world economy goes through a recession about every six years and the frequency of global recessions tends to rise when global indebtedness is high and falling compared with when indebtedness is low and rising, Pacific Investment Management Co (Pimco) said in a note published on its website late Tuesday.
"Given that the last global recession was four years ago, and also given that the global economy is significantly more indebted today than it was four years ago, we believe there is now a greater than 60 percent probability that we will experience another global recession in the next three to five years," Saumil H. Parikh, a managing director and generalist portfolio manager at Pimco said in the note.
The U.S. had a debt to GDP ratio of about 101.6 in 2012, up from 99.4 in 2011. Japan, the world's third largest economy after China and the U.S., has a debt to GDP ratio of more than 200 percent.
"We have started to see more recessions
than not, but I do think we have moved into a phase that we saw 10-20
years ago, where we have different pockets of growth," Sani Hamid,
director wealth management at Financial Alliance, said referring to the
Pimco report.
"I think Europe will remain mired in a recession while the U.S. will chug along at a low rate of growth, while emerging markets move ahead especially those in Asia," he added.
According to Pimco, investors should reduce their risk exposure given its outlook for deteriorating economic conditions in the world economy.
Parikh said that while both U.S. stocks and bonds were expensive, that was not the case globally and that he favored government bond markets in Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, Mexico and Brazil.
"In the equity space, we generally favor emerging market equities and specifically Chinese non-financial equities," Pariikh added in the note.
Emerging market assets have sold off sharply in recent weeks amid jitters about an outflow of funds as the investors brace for an unwinding of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus. That monetary stimulus has helped boost liquidity in markets globally in recent years.
"I think Europe will remain mired in a recession while the U.S. will chug along at a low rate of growth, while emerging markets move ahead especially those in Asia," he added.
According to Pimco, investors should reduce their risk exposure given its outlook for deteriorating economic conditions in the world economy.
Parikh said that while both U.S. stocks and bonds were expensive, that was not the case globally and that he favored government bond markets in Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, Mexico and Brazil.
"In the equity space, we generally favor emerging market equities and specifically Chinese non-financial equities," Pariikh added in the note.
Emerging market assets have sold off sharply in recent weeks amid jitters about an outflow of funds as the investors brace for an unwinding of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus. That monetary stimulus has helped boost liquidity in markets globally in recent years.
沒有留言:
張貼留言