美國 年輕族群 不願搬離父母家

美Y世代失業率竟達16.1%！不願買房寧為啃老族

鉅亨網蘇嘉維 綜合報導

最新研究發現，美國新世代年輕人還因為失業或是打零工的狀態，不願搬離父母家，只願當個「啃老族」。年輕族群是被 2008 年的房地產崩盤影響？對買房望之卻步。

《MarketWatch》報導，美國房地產公司 Trulia的首席經濟學家 Jed Kolko 分析顯示，18 至 34歲青年至少有一半仍然不願買房，選擇與父母住在一起。據 Trulia 統計數據，2013 年 3 月家庭組成數有 240 萬，比 2011 年高峰的 260 萬略為下降，但依舊比 2012 年增加 10 萬，家庭組成是影響美國房市能否強烈復甦的關鍵指標。

Kolko 表示在美國次貸風暴前，家庭組成每年至少穩定成長 110 萬，但自 2008 年第 1 季至 2011 年第 1 季每年平均家庭組成數僅增長 45 萬。由於房屋需求量不斷縮減，建案也就不斷減少，自 2008 年首季的 140 萬件降至目前的 60 萬件，18 至 34 歲族群一直都是購屋主要族群，Kolko 說：「即便經濟衰退，現在青年租購房的比例不斷下降，但他們依舊在房市上交易占大多數。」

現代美國年輕人已無法獨自承擔房貸的壓力，甚至有能力的人也不想買房子，他們目睹過房市崩盤，更不願陷入房貸的泥沼中，投顧公司 Hefty Wealth Partners 財務顧問 Scheumann 指出，過去 4 至 5 年期間，房市有如雲霄飛車，現代年輕人並不認為購置房產像 30 年前那樣是個好投資。市場研究機構 Pew Research 則在 2012 年的調查發現，有 78% 年輕人非常滿意與爸媽同住的生活，當中的 77% 甚至對自己未來的財務狀況是樂觀的。2012 年美國人口普查結果，2260 萬介於 18 至 34 歲年輕人住在父母家，與過去 10 年比上升了 18%。

美國房地產公司 RealtyTrac 副總裁 Darren Blomquist 表示就長遠來看，目前美國年輕人有相當高的比率尚未投入房地產，他們會是未來買房的潛力族群。RealtyTrac統計顯示，法人在今年第 2 季大幅買進小型家庭房屋，比去年同期上升了 16%，Blomquist 認為這些無殼蝸牛遲早要購置房產，但由於法人興趣重燃，短期內有需求的購屋族，可能會因為選擇變少，而難以買到合適自己的房屋。

非營利研究機構 Generation Opportunity 調查發現，有 84% 的年輕人選擇較晚進入獨立生活，其中有 38% 的人延後購屋計畫。Generation Opportunity 主席 Evan Feinberg 表示，此現象的主因來自失業率偏高與房市疲弱。美國政府公布，目前失業率已從2009年10月高峰的 10% 降至今年 6 月的 6.5%，但 Generation Opportunity 自政府資料中所計算，介於 18 歲至 29 歲的青年失業率實質為 16.1%。

Kolko 說：「就業率是影響房市的主要關鍵。」他表示 18 歲至 34 歲的年輕人中有 44% 是目前無業且與父母同住的族群，相比之下僅 25% 的年輕人是有工作與父母同住。他也表示大多數的年輕人不可能與父母永遠同住，那些將來會購買房地產的年輕人正是房市形成復甦的潛力。

July 25, 2013, 1:32 p.m. EDT http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-kids-arent-buying-homes-2013-07-25

The kids aren’t buying homes

Generation Y may be holding back the housing recovery

By Quentin Fottrell

Millions of young Americans are unemployed or underemployed, living with roommates or at home with Mom and Dad — instead of buying homes of their own, a new study found. And it isn’t just the economy that is holding them back, experts say: Many were also spooked by the property crash of 2008.

The number of “missing households” — that is, Americans who would be owning or renting a home now if prerecession economic trends had continued — hit 2.4 million as of March, according to an analysis of raw monthly government data by real-estate marketplace Trulia. That is down slightly from its peak of 2.6 million in 2011, but up 100,000 from the year prior. And 18- to 34-year-olds account for more than half of the missing households, according to the data. “Household formation is the most important indicator of the housing recovery that isn’t making great strides,” says Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko, who did the analysis.

Before the Great Recession, about 1.1 million new households were added annually in the U.S., Kolko says. However, from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2011, only 450,000 new households per year were created. That, he says, contributed to lower demand for homes, and annual construction starts dropped during this period from a norm of 1.4 million to below 600,000. The 18- to 34-year-olds are a key age group for housing demand, he says: “They’ll always make up a significant share of buyers, even though they’re now less likely to be buying, renting, or living on their own than they were before the recession.”

While plenty of young people can’t currently afford a home of their own, many of those who can aren’t buying either. They watched the housing market collapse, experts say, and they’re not keen to repeat the mistakes of the past. “They’re spooked,” says Nick Scheumann, a financial adviser at Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Ind. “They don’t see housing as good an investment as it was 30 years ago. It was a scary ride over the last four or five years in real estate.” Indeed, around 78% of young adults say they’re satisfied living at home, a 2012 Pew Research survey found, while 77% feel upbeat about their future finances. Some 22.6 million adults ages 18 to 34 lived at home in 2012, up 18% from a decade earlier, according to U.S. Census figures.

This may have an upside in the longer term as investors brace for this generation of Americans to take the leap, says Darren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, a company that supplies real estate data. Institutional investor purchases of single-family homes in the second quarter of this year have risen 16% year-over-year, according to RealtyTrac. “They are anticipating a surge in rental demand as these missing households move out from wherever they are living and start renting,” he says. The downside of renewed investor interest in real estate, he says: It makes it harder for prospective owner-occupants to buy a home, at least in the short-term.

Employment is critical for household formation, Kolko says, making it feasible for young adults to buy or rent their own place. Some 44% of 18- to 34-year-olds without jobs live with their parents, compared with just 25% of those who are employed, he says. And since most children won’t live with their parents forever, these young adults represent significant pent-up demand for housing. The unemployment rate has declined significantly — down to 6.5% in June 2013 from the October 2009 peak of 10% — but more young adults have still dropped out of the labor force. The effective unemployment rate for 18- to 29-year-olds, according to calculations by Generation Opportunity based on government data, including those who have given up looking for work, is 16.1%.The most obvious reason for failure to launch, of course, is money. Some 84% of young people are delaying major life decisions due to the poor economy, including 38% who are delaying buying their own homes, according to a recent survey by Generation Opportunity, a nonprofit think-tank based in Arlington, Va. “Youth unemployment and the skittish housing market are symptoms of the same disease,” says Evan Feinberg, president of Generation Opportunity. “Now we’re starting to see how my generation’s failure to launch has far-reaching implications for the country as a whole.”