高盛CEO：我們的風控堪稱完美 Goldman's Blankfein: Whatever Bad Can Happen Eventually Will
wrong titling from the report
布蘭克費恩周五在澳大利亞公司董事協會(Australian Institute of Company Directors)早餐會上表示，投資者應該總是為最極端的風險情景做好准備，因為這是會發生的。
他稱：“大部分風險管理實際上僅是提前應急計劃和紀律，讓自已承認，只要時間一到，多低概率的事情不是可能發生，而是必然發生。”
布蘭克費恩稱：“一旦你認為某事不可能發生，所有人都這麼想，人們調整行為方式，使事情發生的可能性加大。”
他補充稱：“每個人都認為那麼多人在不動上違約是極不可能的，這反而是風險加劇，因為更多資本流向這一領域。
Goldman's Blankfein: Whatever Bad Can Happen Eventually Will
Friday, 26 Jul 2013 04:24 PM By Dan Weil
Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein is apparently a believer in Murphy's Law, which holds that anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
Investors should always prepare for the most negative outcome possible, he said at a meeting of the Australian Institute of Company Directors Friday, CNBC reports.
"Most risk management is really just advanced contingency planning and disciplining yourself to realize that, given enough time, very low probability events not only can happen, but they absolutely will happen," he said.
"The definition of infinity is that you wait long enough, everything happens."
Blankfein said a major problem during the 2007-09 financial crisis was that regular people couldn't broach the idea that real estate prices might collapse.
"Once you think that something is improbable and everybody thinks it, people modify their behavior in a way that makes it more probable," he said.
That's because they take more risk, not realizing the danger. In the case of real estate, "more capital flowed into that sector" creating the conditions for a meltdown, Blankfein said.
As for Goldman, he thinks it did a good job dealing with the real estate collapse, but that it didn't "manage its relationship with wider society" so well.
When it comes to the financial industry as a whole, a recent survey by the Economist Intelligent Unit shows banks and other institutions have made progress in their risk management since the financial crisis, but still have a ways to go.
For example, "only 20 percent of financial institutions feel they have integrated risk awareness into their corporate cultures, with just 15 percent making substantial improvements toward implementing or enhancing comprehensive, enterprise-wide risk management systems," according to EIU.
"Most risk management is really just advanced contingency planning and disciplining yourself to realize that, given enough time, very low probability events not only can happen, but they absolutely will happen," he said.
"The definition of infinity is that you wait long enough, everything happens."
Blankfein said a major problem during the 2007-09 financial crisis was that regular people couldn't broach the idea that real estate prices might collapse.
"Once you think that something is improbable and everybody thinks it, people modify their behavior in a way that makes it more probable," he said.
That's because they take more risk, not realizing the danger. In the case of real estate, "more capital flowed into that sector" creating the conditions for a meltdown, Blankfein said.
As for Goldman, he thinks it did a good job dealing with the real estate collapse, but that it didn't "manage its relationship with wider society" so well.
When it comes to the financial industry as a whole, a recent survey by the Economist Intelligent Unit shows banks and other institutions have made progress in their risk management since the financial crisis, but still have a ways to go.
For example, "only 20 percent of financial institutions feel they have integrated risk awareness into their corporate cultures, with just 15 percent making substantial improvements toward implementing or enhancing comprehensive, enterprise-wide risk management systems," according to EIU.
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