美國房價 跌回10年前水準 Real House Prices : Back to 1999 //About 28.4% of US homeowners owe more on the mortgage than their house is worth

About 28.4% of US homeowners owe more on the mortgage than 
their house is worth, real estate data firm Zillow said this month.

美國房價 跌回10年前水準
June 01, 2011 03:29 PM | 20652 次 | 11 11 評論 | 25 25 推薦 | 電郵給朋友 | 打印

Read more:世界新聞網-北美華文新聞、華商資訊 - 美國房價 跌回10年前水準

3月房價大跌 專家:年底前再跌5%
June 01, 2011

富國銀行(Wells Fargo)資深經濟學家威奈爾說,人們取得房貸困難重重,也許明年初房價才會落底。

Read more:世界新聞網-北美華文新聞、華商資訊 - 3月房價大跌 專家:年底前再跌5

Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent: Back to 1999

by CalculatedRisk on 5/31/2011 12:35:00 PM
Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal houseprices. However it is also useful to look at house prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation), as a price-to-rent ratio, and also price-to-income (not shown here).
Below are three graphs showing nominal prices (as reported), real prices and a price-to-rent ratio. Real prices are back to 1999/2000 levels, and the price-to-rent ratio is also back to 1999/2000 levels.
Nominal House Prices
The first graph shows the quarterly Case-Shiller National Index SA (through Q1 2011), and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA (through March) and CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through March) in nominal terms (as reported).
Nominal House PricesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index is back to Q3 2002 levels, the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is slightly above the May 2009 lows (and close to June 2003 levels), and the CoreLogic index is back to January 2003.
Note: The not seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (NSA) is back to April 2003 levels.
Real House Prices
Real House PricesThe second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.
In real terms, the National index is back to Q4 1999 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to October 2000, and the CoreLogic index back to November 1999.
A few key points:
• In real terms, all appreciation in the last decade is gone.
• Real prices are still too high, but they are much closer to the eventual bottom than the top in 2005. This isn’t like in 2005 when prices were way out of the normal range. In many areas – with an increasing population and land constraints – there is an upward slope to real prices (see: The upward slope of Real House Prices)
In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.
Price-to-Rent RatioHere is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Index (through March).
This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).
Note: the measure of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was mostly flat for two years – so the price-to-rent ratio mostly followed changes in nominalhouse prices. In recent months, OER has been increasing – lowering the price-to-rent ratio.
On a price-to-rent basis, the Composite 20 index is back to October 2000 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to December 1999.

Fall in house prices raises fears for US economy

• Recovery hit by drop in consumer confidence
• US house prices back to 2002 levels
US house prices have fallen for the eighth month in a row. Photograph: Robert Galbraith /Reuters
US house prices have fallen back to levels last seen in 2002 and consumer confidence has also fallen sharply according to new figures, leading to fresh fears about the country's economic recovery.
A closely watched measure of the property market, Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index, has fallen for eight months in a row and declined by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011, following a 3.6% fall in the fourth quarter of 2010.
By the end of March the index hit a recession low and showed an annual decline of 5.1% compared with the first quarter of 2010.
According to the survey, nationally home prices are back to their mid-2002 levels. Prices in Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas are below January 2000 levels.
The US economy had been showing a better than forecast recovery but the Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 60.8 in May from a revised 66.0 in April, well below economists' forecasts for 66.5. A third survey also suggested that growth could be slowing.
Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, said the figures were evidence that consumers were worried about jobs, food prices and housing. "These are not good numbers, we are back to where we were two month ago. But I think we are bobbing along the waves, not sinking further."
Business activity in the heartland mid-west grew much less than expected last month as sales and employment weakened. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer dropped to 56.6 in May, its lowest reading since November 2009. The reading was 67.6 in April, and economists had forecast a May reading of 62.6.
"The question is, 'Is the softer data we're seeing transitory, or is it likely to persist throughout the remainder of 2011?' Right now, that's an open question that investors are trying to figure out," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.
Prices of single-family houses in the 20 largest US cities fell 0.2% from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Case-Shiller index. Year on year house prices fell in 19 of the 20 big cities polled by Case Shiller when compared with March 2010.
Minneapolis saw a 10% annual decline, the first market to experience a double digit drop since March 2010 when Las Vegas was down 12% on an annual basis.
Washington DC was the only city where home prices increased. Housing in the capital was up 1.1% on a monthly basis and 4.3% over the year. Seattle was up a modest 0.1% for the month, but still down 7.5% against March 2010.
About 28.4% of US homeowners owe more on the mortgage than their house is worth, real estate data firm Zillow said this month.
"This month's report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices. "Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight."
Blitzer said that since December 2010 an increasing number of markets had hit new lows. In March 2011, 12 cities – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland (Oregon) and Tampa – fell to new lows for the current housing cycle.
A rebound in prices seen in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to a tax credit for first-time home buyers, he said. Excluding that policy he said there has been no recovery or even stabilisation in home prices since the recession.