2013年7月31日

越南北部暴雨成災 已知2死 2013/07/29

越南北部地區27日至28日連降暴雨,造成2人死亡,多處淹水,不少山路路段坍方,數千戶居民生活困頓。

  綜合越南媒體今天(29日)報導,北部省份近日連續降下傾盆大雨,許多城市和農村數千公頃稻田被水淹沒,不少房屋泡在水中,民眾生活大受影響。

  報導指出,山羅省(Son La)數十房舍被洪水沖垮,另外有數百間岌岌可危,水位高漲使得許多村落成了孤島,淹沒數百公頃農作物,道路支離破碎。

  至於老街省(Lao Cai),防災中心指出,當地1人死亡,多人受傷,數百房舍與數千公頃農作物泡在水中,而且山路坍方嚴重影響交通。

  而在河江省(Hau Qiang),因暴雨災損達160億越盾(約76萬美元);宣光省(Tuyen Quang)洪水暴漲,水壩倒塌,淹沒數百公頃稻田與農作物;廣寧省(Quang Ninh)則有超過70名旅客困在景點島上,無法進入內地。

  首都河內路樹倒塌,多處重要街道淹水,交通情況受到嚴重影響。

  報導指出,越南北部各省全力救援協助災民,因地形複雜危險又雨勢未減,救災舉步維艱。


Floods, landslides blight northern Vietnam

Many provinces in northern Vietnam are suffering from flooding and landslides caused by prolonged heavy rain and are working to deal with the situation.
In Lao Cai province, on July 28, a 37-year-old man was swept away by a flood while trying to cross a stream in Liem Phu commune, Van Ban district, according to the local authority. His body was retrieved the same day by local residents.
In Quang Ninh province, prolonged rain for over two days created landslides around the dams in Ha Long city, causing local houses to collapse. As a result, many households had to be urgently evacuated to safer places.
According to the Ha Long city People’s Committee, dozens of households were more or less affected by the landslides caused by the heavy rain. Among them, four households were seriously affected and one home completely collapsed.
In Son La province, many roads have been inundated by flooding, causing serious congestion.
One part of the National Highway 6 passing through Chieng Mung commune in Mai Son district, in particular, was completely submerged by water, creating traffic backups of nearly one kilometre that lasted for over two hours.
In response, the local authorities intervened by redirecting trafficalong a new route.
Landslides have also blocked the way on three other roads in the province and causing heavy traffic congestion.
Damages from the flood and landslides in Son La are so far unknown, but the crops of many local households were reported to be seriously damaged.
Tuyen Quang province has been also considerably affected by the prolonged heavy rain.
In particular, the rain has broken the dams surrounding the Hoang Tan Reservoir in Ninh Lai commune, Son Duong district, causing damage to dozens of hectares of crops and plants grown by the locals and killing thousands of poultry.
Local authorities in affected provinces are still working to deal with the consequences of flooding and landslide and prevent further damages.-VNA

TAIPEI :2013 JUST HOT 7/31/2013 37'C 7/30 37.9'C 8/8 39.3'C

台北39.3度 百餘年來最熱

(中央社記者汪淑芬台北8日電)台北市今天中午出現攝氏39.3度高溫。中央氣象局說,這是台北市氣象站在西元1896年設站以來,測到的最高溫。

台北市氣象站設在台北市公園路、中央氣象局前廣場,已有117年歷史。

根據氣象局紀錄,台北市的高溫,多數出現在近10年,原本最高溫是2003年8月9日38.8度,其次是2003年8月8日的38.7度,1921年7月31日、2007年7月21日及2010年7月3日,高溫都達到38.6度。

今天中午1時16分,台北市氣溫升到38.8度,平台北市歷史高溫紀錄,1時44分破紀錄達38.9度,1時58分再破紀錄,升到39.3度,是台北市氣象站設站以來測到的最高溫。


台北39.3度 台灣第7高溫

中央社記者汪淑芬台北8日電)中央氣象局觀測,台北市今天高溫接連破紀錄,中午1時58分,飆升到攝氏39.3度,是台灣氣象史上第7高溫。

根據氣象局資料,原本台北市最高溫出現在2003年8月9日38.8度;今天中午1時16分,台北市高溫升到38.8度,平歷史紀錄;中午1時44分,再升到38.9度,破了台北市氣象站設站以來紀錄。

不過,中午1時58分,台北市高溫又破紀錄,升到39.3度。

氣象局說,台北市今天的高溫,在台灣氣象史上排名第7。

〔本報訊〕台北市高溫持續攀升,中午12時50分才出現今年最高溫,不到半小時,中央氣象局觀測到38.9度高溫,突破台北市史上高溫紀錄。

 氣象局觀測,台北市氣溫今天一路攀升,上午11時29分就達36.8度,中午12時45分升破38度,12時50分出現今年最高溫38.5度,下午1時44分飆到38.9度。

 據氣象局紀錄,台北市先前的最高溫是出現在2003年8月9日38.8度,其次是2003年8月8日的38.7度。若不依月分排名,中午測得的38.5度也是台北市史上第5高溫,除了2003年兩次高溫外,1921年7月31日、2007年7月21日、2010年7月3日,高溫都達38.6度。

台北市歷史日高溫一覽表
排名日期氣溫
12013年8月8日38.9度
22003年8月9日38.8度
32003年8月8日38.7度
41921年7月31日38.6度
2007年7月21日38.6度
2010年7月3日38.6度


臺北39.308/08 13:58
臺北38.508/08 12:50

臺北08/08 12:4538.2

37.9度 台北飆高溫

中央社 (2013-07-30 16:35)
中央氣象局30日表示,中午12時45分左右,台北氣象站測得氣溫攝氏37.9度,板橋也有36.8度,都創下今年最高溫。中央社記者王飛華攝 102年7月30日






溫度分布圖
溫度分布圖

台北飆高溫 攝氏37度

  • 中央社

 中央氣象局表示,今天中午各地高溫,台北氣象站測得攝氏37度,板橋也達35.5度。
 台北氣象站在昨天中午測得的最高溫為37.9度。
 今天其他各地高溫還包括高雄34.6度、台南34.6度、淡水34.3 度、馬祖33.9度、蘇澳33.8度。
 氣象局指出,民眾白天在戶外活動要注意防曬,並適時補充水分,小心中暑。
 氣象局說,中午過後西半部地區及宜蘭山區有機會出現午後雷陣雨,並有局部性大雨發生的機率,外出建議攜帶雨具,白天既可遮陽避暑,午後也可預防突如其來較大的雨勢,尤其在山區或河川附近活動更要隨時留意天氣變化,注意安全
溫度分布圖溫度分布圖

2013年7月29日

China Statewide Debt 中國地方政府債務大審計 窟窿多大? >45%GDP? 鉅亨網新聞中心  2013-07-29

中國審計署昨(28)日證實,2013年全國政府性債務大審計將從8月1日起全面開展。審計署此舉引發投資者擔憂,一方面地方政府債務窟窿到底有多大,市場一直眾說紛紜;另一方面國有股東會不會在A股減持套現填補債務窟窿也引發憂慮。業內人士表示,如果從全國來看,地方債務規模不小,甚至部分地方負債比超過100%。不排除有地方國有股股東在A股市場上減持套現。
中新網援引《廣州日報》報導,中國的地方政府債務窟窿有多大,市場眾說紛紜。根據審計署的報告推算,2013年到期的地方政府債務總額至少高達1.2兆元(人民幣,下同),佔比11.37%。根據光大證券的估計,今年下半年到期的中國地方政府融資工具(LGFV)約有人民幣1270億元。而這僅僅是債券部分,還未算上佔了「大頭」的銀行貸款。
目前地方融資包括銀行信貸、發債和發行信託項目等等。發行地方政府債券是地方政府最公開、透明的一種。據今年兩會期間提交的財政預算草案,預計2013年地方債的額度達到3500億元,創下新高。而今年額度中,有700億元是由地方試點自行發債的,這比去年的289億元大幅增加了。
但是,地方政府發行的債券,遠難填滿地方政府龐大的資金「窟窿」。因此,從5年前「4兆」經濟刺激政策開始,地方融資平台已成為地方借貸的核心渠道。
據了解,目前地方融資平臺的主要融資渠道是銀行信貸、發行債券以及信託產品。分析指出,這種以融資平臺為核心的地方債務,最明顯的特點是佔銀行貸款規模大,嚴重依賴土地出讓收入。
廣東社科院教授黎友煥指出,目前地方債務的規模「是個謎」,這才是最致命的。
目前,地方融資平臺的負債,除了銀行信貸之外,主要通過發行城投債以及信託產品來實現融資。而這部分是最令人擔憂的。根據同花順統計,截至昨日,未到期的城投債規模為2.93兆元。
不過,數據顯示, 6月發行的城投債僅533億元,環比銳減了400多億元,創年內最低規模。業內預計,今年監管層有所打壓,並且整體資金環境不如去年寬鬆,預計今年城投發行將會減速。東北證券估計,2013年城投債的凈發行規模或在8000億元以上。
另一方面,今年地方融資平臺向信託融資熱度不減,近期監管層再次「叫停」政信產品的市場傳聞再起。某大型國有信託公司華南地區負責人表示,近期沒有收到相關文件,但銀監會對政信產品的窗口指導一直都有,一家信託公司的政信項目餘額達到一定程度就不會再批新項目,相比之下,現在政信項目主要集中到一些小的信託公司那裏,這些公司前期做得少,所以還能獲批新項目。
據中國信託業協會的數據,截至今年第1季末,投向基礎產業的信託資產規模達到2.11兆元,佔比從去年同期的21.85%上升到25.78%。其中,直接的政信合作業務共6548.14億元,佔全行業信託資產規模的7.50%,在規模上同比增長了160.85%,在佔比上同比提高了2.76個百分點。
IMF今年評估稱,2012年中國廣義政府債務(包括中央和地方預算內和未列入地方預算內的,如地方基礎設施建設支出)已超過GDP的45%

2013年7月27日

How Detroit’s bankruptcy filing will have national repercussions

Chuck Jaffe
July 26, 2013, 3:19 p.m. EDT

Today, Detroit. Tomorrow, Hometown, USA

How Detroit’s bankruptcy filing will have national repercussions

Back when I was a rookie reporter at the Detroit Free Press nearly 30 years ago, the big debate the staff had over lunches was which would go bankrupt first: the big automakers or the city. And which experience would be worse.

Lessons from Detroit's bankruptcy for you

The city of Detroit is about $20 billion in debt to over 100,000 creditors. The Detroit bankruptcy serves as a warning beacon for everyone expecting a pension and other retirement benefits. Chuck Jaffe explains on MoneyBeat. Photo: AP.
You could make arguments for each possibility, but most of the staffers thought there was no way either event would ever actually happen. They insisted that the early signs of trouble were an anomaly or something that could be reversed before it became a calamity.
Having just earned my degree in economics, I thought back then that both were possible — many years in the future — and that bankruptcies for the Big Three would be bad for the city, but that a bankruptcy for the city would be bad for the entire country.
Sadly, what was once little more than a theory is now a reality, but what’s worse is that so many people — like my old colleagues — don’t recognize what the city’s financial woes mean on a national level.
Detroit owes roughly $20 billion to over 100,000 creditors, but the big creditors people will be watching are the city’s public-sector labor unions, which fear that a bankruptcy judge might let the city reduce or cancel pensions and retiree health benefits.
Sure, the unions have the law on their side — Michigan’s state constitution protects workers’ pensions from being reduced — but they still have reason to be worried. After all, Michigan law also requires public pensions to be fully funded every year, and yet Detroit apparently only managed that using accounting tricks that, by some estimates, have left the city as much as $3.5 billion off the mark.
That’s why the Detroit bankruptcy filing serves as a warning beacon for everyone expecting a pension and other benefits when they retire, a signal that it’s dangerous to entrust your financial future to others, assuming they are going to keep their promises.
How much precedent Detroit will set for other communities remains to be seen, but clearly everyone is watching to see what’ll be allowed. Other communities on the brink will see how the Motor City comes through the experience financially and decide if they want to mark a similar course on the map, even if it is as a last resort.
There is plenty of precedent for corporations using bankruptcy to cut or eliminate pension obligations — Delta Airlines DAL +1.96%   being the most-recent big-name company to go that route — leaving the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. to step in with smaller pensions and the workers with a much less secure future.
The Pew Center for the States estimates that public pension plans nationwide were underfunded by $1.4 trillion in 2010. While the stock market has reached record highs — narrowing the gap somewhat — since then, the undeniable problem is that most state and local government pension funds don’t have enough money to live up to the promises they have made.
If employers can’t live up to their obligations, you can bet that the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. — the nation’s pension backstop — will follow suit and run out of money too.
Even if the Detroit situation is resolved without setting some benchmark for other troubled municipalities to use and follow, the nation’s pension shortfalls aren’t going away; this story is going to play out again and again, and while it will be corporations, cities and towns in the headlines, it will be the nameless, faceless individuals who are the real story.
That’s not a story anyone wants playing out in their own home.
Now, back to the bankruptcy filings of the big automakers for a moment. They were big stories for Detroit, but they actually showed the underlying values of the businesses; allowed a break and a chance to restructure, they were able to improve their fortunes and move forward. Talk to auto-industry analysts and some of them are more bullish on the prospects of the domestic manufacturers than they have been in decades.

Getty Images
The problem for the city of Detroit, by comparison, is that there is no reason to believe it comes through a bankruptcy with greatly improved prospects. The court process will be more a respite than a solution; the city will still have the same high unemployment, dwindling work force and Rust Belt economics, with the same delinquent tax revenue collections and other conditions that make it hard to see any ability to improve the long-term numbers without reducing pensions or eliminating benefits.
Even during those conversations at the Free Press in the 1980s, colleagues who had seen the city and the automakers take care of generations of workers wondered if my worries about future bankruptcy meant that workers should not trust their pensions.
“Oh, they will get pension payments,” I said, “but maybe not of the size they expect, so the more they save now — rather than living as if they’re set and taken care of because that’s what the company or union says — the more secure they will be.”
That advice holds for anyone with a pension today: Take full responsibility for your future savings, or supplement the benefits you are earning now, just in case.
Anything less than that, and you have underfunded your future.
Companies and communities can get away with underfunding their futures, to some extent. Accounting rules, revenue projections and, well, bankruptcy courts have allowed it to this point, even as the numbers have become increasingly scary.
Individuals don’t have the same luxury.
If you don’t save enough — and if your pension benefits are cut because of the recklessness of your past employers — no one is going to bail you out. That’s what investors need to think about every time they hear about how Detroit’s bankruptcy is proceeding; trouble is going to show up, even if it takes a few decades to hit your home. Instead of crossing your fingers and hoping that you won’t be effected, make a plan. 

Goldman's Blankfein: Whatever Bad Can Happen Eventually Will

高盛CEO:我們的風控堪稱完美 Goldman's Blankfein: Whatever Bad Can Happen Eventually Will 

wrong titling from the report

新浪財經訊 北京時間7月26日下午消息,高盛CEO布蘭克費恩日前稱,高盛在美國房地崩盤時更好的應對了風險,表現或好於與整個外界的關係,風控堪稱完美。
布蘭克費恩周五在澳大利亞公司董事協會(Australian Institute of Company Directors)早餐會上表示,投資者應該總是為最極端的風險情景做好准備,因為這是會發生的。
他稱:“大部分風險管理實際上僅是提前應急計劃和紀律,讓自已承認,只要時間一到,多低概率的事情不是可能發生,而是必然發生。”
布蘭克費恩稱:“一旦你認為某事不可能發生,所有人都這麼想,人們調整行為方式,使事情發生的可能性加大。”
他補充稱:“每個人都認為那麼多人在不動上違約是極不可能的,這反而是風險加劇,因為更多資本流向這一領域。

Goldman's Blankfein: Whatever Bad Can Happen Eventually Will

Friday, 26 Jul 2013 04:24 PM  By Dan Weil


Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein is apparently a believer in Murphy's Law, which holds that anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.

Investors should always prepare for the most negative outcome possible, he said at a meeting of the Australian Institute of Company Directors Friday, CNBC reports.

"Most risk management is really just advanced contingency planning and disciplining yourself to realize that, given enough time, very low probability events not only can happen, but they absolutely will happen," he said.

"The definition of infinity is that you wait long enough, everything happens."

Blankfein said a major problem during the 2007-09 financial crisis was that regular people couldn't broach the idea that real estate prices might collapse.

"Once you think that something is improbable and everybody thinks it, people modify their behavior in a way that makes it more probable," he said.

That's because they take more risk, not realizing the danger. In the case of real estate, "more capital flowed into that sector" creating the conditions for a meltdown, Blankfein said.

As for Goldman, he thinks it did a good job dealing with the real estate collapse, but that it didn't "manage its relationship with wider society" so well.

When it comes to the financial industry as a whole, a recent survey by the Economist Intelligent Unit shows banks and other institutions have made progress in their risk management since the financial crisis, but still have a ways to go.

For example, "only 20 percent of financial institutions feel they have integrated risk awareness into their corporate cultures, with just 15 percent making substantial improvements toward implementing or enhancing comprehensive, enterprise-wide risk management systems," according to EIU.


Job market: The kids are not alright

Young adults may be having the hardest time in this economy



The number of people applying for new unemployment benefits rose more than expected in the week ended March 23, reaching the highest level since mid-February. But while analysts cautioned against reading too much into the short-term numbers, noting that the job market has been improving over the longer stretch, one group seems to be struggling more than others in this economy: so called millennials.
For young adults between the ages of 18 and 29, the unemployment rate is 12.5%, and it rises to over 16% when taking into account those who have given up looking for work, says Evan Feinberg, president of Generation Opportunity, a non-profit think-tank based in Arlington, Va. When including all 18-to-29 year-olds, Feinberg says, that higher rate remained persistently over 16% throughout 2012. That comes even as the overall jobless rate has fallen to 7.7%, the lowest level in four years.
Why is it tougher for teens and young adults? Jobs that typically went to recent college graduates are increasingly going to older Americans, who have more experience but are willing to stay in lower-paying, entry-level jobs in the absence of better options, say experts. “Young people suffer disproportionately when the economy doesn’t grow,” he says. “It’s tougher for them to break into the workforce.”
College graduates are not immune. A recent Rutgers University study found that only a half of those who graduated since 2006 are now employed full time. As a result, many are forced to say home with mom and dad and face a future of paying off hefty student loans on less-than-adequate salaries. In fact, college graduates who obtained their first job between 2009 and 2011 earned an average of $27,000 a year, or 10% less than those who entered the workforce in the two previous years, the Rutgers survey found. “An entire generation of Americans won’t know what it means to live the American dream,” Feinberg says.
Once in the workforce, experts say this younger generation may have a tougher time building wealth than their parents. A study released earlier this month by the Urban Institute found that those aged 29 to 37 were 21% less wealthy in 2010 than that same age group in 1983.
Not surprisingly, perhaps, millennials’ younger brothers and sisters seems to have an increasingly negative view of their job prospects. A quarter of teenagers say they will be 25 to 27 years old before they become financially independent from their parents, up from 12% in 2011, according to a poll released this week by Junior Achievement USA. 

C J HUMPHREY
Like several of the prior commenters, I attach a lot of blame on the current Administration and their policy of sustainable (aka "non") growth.  Young people need to realize that they are at the bottom of the ladder as far as experience goes.  No, it is not a conspiracy; just a factor of number of years being alive.  Education, while helpful, is not experience.  You can only get experience by having a job.  Jobs where people with little or no experience are scarce.  Why, because they do not contribute to the bottom-line.  The best way to create jobs for inexperienced people is to have economic growth, not 1% or 2%, but economic growth that causes companies to expand beyond adding machines and adding hours to existing workers, but expanding because they need more people, not for today, but for tomorrow.  When you have an Administration that is hostile to business and hostile to growth, your not going to get that.  

Petri Yankovich
Speaking from my own experience, typically this demographic has an entitled attitude and lacks a work ethic.  When you find one that was raised right, hold onto them.  He/She is the gold nugget in a pile of rocks.

Claude Leroy
Poor young Americans ?! LOL  In Spain, they are 60% unemployed at the age of 25!

美國 年輕族群 不願搬離父母家

美Y世代失業率竟達16.1%!不願買房寧為啃老族

鉅亨網蘇嘉維 綜合報導
最新研究發現,美國新世代年輕人還因為失業或是打零工的狀態,不願搬離父母家,只願當個「啃老族」。年輕族群是被 2008 年的房地產崩盤影響?對買房望之卻步。
《MarketWatch》報導,美國房地產公司 Trulia的首席經濟學家 Jed Kolko 分析顯示,18 至 34歲青年至少有一半仍然不願買房,選擇與父母住在一起。據 Trulia 統計數據,2013 年 3 月家庭組成數有 240 萬,比 2011 年高峰的 260 萬略為下降,但依舊比 2012 年增加 10 萬,家庭組成是影響美國房市能否強烈復甦的關鍵指標。
Kolko 表示在美國次貸風暴前,家庭組成每年至少穩定成長 110 萬,但自 2008 年第 1 季至 2011 年第 1 季每年平均家庭組成數僅增長 45 萬。由於房屋需求量不斷縮減,建案也就不斷減少,自 2008 年首季的 140 萬件降至目前的 60 萬件,18 至 34 歲族群一直都是購屋主要族群,Kolko 說:「即便經濟衰退,現在青年租購房的比例不斷下降,但他們依舊在房市上交易占大多數。」
現代美國年輕人已無法獨自承擔房貸的壓力,甚至有能力的人也不想買房子,他們目睹過房市崩盤,更不願陷入房貸的泥沼中,投顧公司 Hefty Wealth Partners 財務顧問 Scheumann 指出,過去 4 至 5 年期間,房市有如雲霄飛車,現代年輕人並不認為購置房產像 30 年前那樣是個好投資。市場研究機構 Pew Research 則在 2012 年的調查發現,有 78% 年輕人非常滿意與爸媽同住的生活,當中的 77% 甚至對自己未來的財務狀況是樂觀的。2012 年美國人口普查結果,2260 萬介於 18 至 34 歲年輕人住在父母家,與過去 10 年比上升了 18%。
美國房地產公司 RealtyTrac 副總裁 Darren Blomquist 表示就長遠來看,目前美國年輕人有相當高的比率尚未投入房地產,他們會是未來買房的潛力族群。RealtyTrac統計顯示,法人在今年第 2 季大幅買進小型家庭房屋,比去年同期上升了 16%,Blomquist 認為這些無殼蝸牛遲早要購置房產,但由於法人興趣重燃,短期內有需求的購屋族,可能會因為選擇變少,而難以買到合適自己的房屋。
非營利研究機構 Generation Opportunity 調查發現,有 84% 的年輕人選擇較晚進入獨立生活,其中有 38% 的人延後購屋計畫。Generation Opportunity 主席 Evan Feinberg 表示,此現象的主因來自失業率偏高與房市疲弱。美國政府公布,目前失業率已從2009年10月高峰的 10% 降至今年 6 月的 6.5%,但 Generation Opportunity 自政府資料中所計算,介於 18 歲至 29 歲的青年失業率實質為 16.1%。
Kolko 說:「就業率是影響房市的主要關鍵。」他表示 18 歲至 34 歲的年輕人中有 44% 是目前無業且與父母同住的族群,相比之下僅 25% 的年輕人是有工作與父母同住。他也表示大多數的年輕人不可能與父母永遠同住,那些將來會購買房地產的年輕人正是房市形成復甦的潛力。

The kids aren’t buying homes

Generation Y may be holding back the housing recovery


Millions of young Americans are unemployed or underemployed, living with roommates or at home with Mom and Dad — instead of buying homes of their own, a new study found. And it isn’t just the economy that is holding them back, experts say: Many were also spooked by the property crash of 2008.

The number of “missing households” — that is, Americans who would be owning or renting a home now if prerecession economic trends had continued — hit 2.4 million as of March, according to an analysis of raw monthly government data by real-estate marketplace Trulia. That is down slightly from its peak of 2.6 million in 2011, but up 100,000 from the year prior. And 18- to 34-year-olds account for more than half of the missing households, according to the data. “Household formation is the most important indicator of the housing recovery that isn’t making great strides,” says Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko, who did the analysis.
Before the Great Recession, about 1.1 million new households were added annually in the U.S., Kolko says. However, from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2011, only 450,000 new households per year were created. That, he says, contributed to lower demand for homes, and annual construction starts dropped during this period from a norm of 1.4 million to below 600,000. The 18- to 34-year-olds are a key age group for housing demand, he says: “They’ll always make up a significant share of buyers, even though they’re now less likely to be buying, renting, or living on their own than they were before the recession.”
While plenty of young people can’t currently afford a home of their own, many of those who can aren’t buying either. They watched the housing market collapse, experts say, and they’re not keen to repeat the mistakes of the past. “They’re spooked,” says Nick Scheumann, a financial adviser at Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Ind. “They don’t see housing as good an investment as it was 30 years ago. It was a scary ride over the last four or five years in real estate.” Indeed, around 78% of young adults say they’re satisfied living at home, a 2012 Pew Research survey found, while 77% feel upbeat about their future finances. Some 22.6 million adults ages 18 to 34 lived at home in 2012, up 18% from a decade earlier, according to U.S. Census figures.
This may have an upside in the longer term as investors brace for this generation of Americans to take the leap, says Darren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, a company that supplies real estate data. Institutional investor purchases of single-family homes in the second quarter of this year have risen 16% year-over-year, according to RealtyTrac. “They are anticipating a surge in rental demand as these missing households move out from wherever they are living and start renting,” he says. The downside of renewed investor interest in real estate, he says: It makes it harder for prospective owner-occupants to buy a home, at least in the short-term.
Employment is critical for household formation, Kolko says, making it feasible for young adults to buy or rent their own place. Some 44% of 18- to 34-year-olds without jobs live with their parents, compared with just 25% of those who are employed, he says. And since most children won’t live with their parents forever, these young adults represent significant pent-up demand for housing. The unemployment rate has declined significantly — down to 6.5% in June 2013 from the October 2009 peak of 10% — but more young adults have still dropped out of the labor force. The effective unemployment rate for 18- to 29-year-olds, according to calculations by Generation Opportunity based on government data, including those who have given up looking for work, is 16.1%.The most obvious reason for failure to launch, of course, is money. Some 84% of young people are delaying major life decisions due to the poor economy, including 38% who are delaying buying their own homes, according to a recent survey by Generation Opportunity, a nonprofit think-tank based in Arlington, Va. “Youth unemployment and the skittish housing market are symptoms of the same disease,” says Evan Feinberg, president of Generation Opportunity. “Now we’re starting to see how my generation’s failure to launch has far-reaching implications for the country as a whole.”

2013年7月26日

超商工讀生 33歲躍登15元咖啡王

超商工讀生 33歲躍登15元咖啡王


台中太原路不起眼的角落裡,竟然有一家歐客佬咖啡(OKLAO),掌握了寮國出口到台灣五成以上的咖啡豆,從壹咖啡、長榮桂冠等五星飯店通路,甚至韓國連鎖咖啡店都會用到它的咖啡豆。
到了歐客佬,更訝異的發現執行長王信鈞竟然才33歲,還一身Burberry襯衫、愛馬仕皮帶,開著保時捷,十足大明星派頭。
自認不是讀書的料 小七打工,做到讓人挖角
但在2005年之前,王信鈞還只是一個7-Eleven的夜班工讀生、受雇到越南看工廠的台幹。當台灣的平價咖啡市場被85度C、7-Eleven等業者占據,市場飽和,甚至過度競爭之時,他夠狠,用別人三分之一的價格切入市場,成為年營業額破億元的寮國咖啡豆進口大亨。
能夠有今天,竟然是從到7-Eleven當夜班工讀生開始的。17歲的王信鈞自認不是念書的料,因為不想花錢被家裡管,決定到7-Eleven打工。「接觸服務業,讓我學會做生意。」
2005年,王信鈞在越南受雇於人,讓當時25歲的王信鈞有接觸咖啡豆的機會。
大膽到寮國設公司 雨季一來,300萬泡湯
沒想到自己帶回的寮國咖啡豆,受飲料大廠青睞,加上當時咖啡豆價格不透明,一個貨櫃竟可以大賺30萬,「全世界第一大期貨是石油,第二大就是咖啡,」他盤算著,台灣咖啡豆市場有高毛利,所以心一狠,到寮國設公司、種咖啡,把手邊可運用的600萬現金放手一搏。
人算不如天算,他第一年因為專業不足,選在雨季栽種的咖啡全部泡湯,損失300萬元,又遇上國際咖啡豆價格轉趨透明,賣給大廠利潤只剩原先十分之一,苦無獲利管道,逼得他只好回台自建通路「再難做也要去嘗試。」
「只要看得到細縫,我就想做這個生意,」王信鈞狠勁十足,一口氣破壞市場價格,推15元現沖咖啡。台灣精緻咖啡協會前秘書長吳儉文不諱言,歐客佬最早確實是以價格破壞者的寮國咖啡竄紅,當時業界多認為它不可能賺錢,甚至質疑是加盟吸金手段。
「15元咖啡只是門票,」王信鈞透露,他這一招是跟85度C學的,要讓消費者「物超所值」,其實他要做的是毛利率破五成的咖啡豆生意。結果15元咖啡一度暴紅,最高峰一個月銷上萬杯。
目前歐客佬店面架上共有約上百種各國咖啡豆,價格從半磅150元到5000元都有,咖啡器具則超過700種,要拚全台最齊全的咖啡豆相關產品連鎖通路,就是不讓別人看不起他。
接著他還用平價咖啡的價格賣精品咖啡,從一杯15元賣到300元,藉此養出自己的咖啡生豆生意。原來,他自產自銷免去進出口、盤商抽成,還投資烘焙廠,連美工、包裝、印刷通通垂直整合自己來,所以有空間用交叉補貼方式讓出部分飲品利潤,變相用買一送一的五折促銷價讓消費者喝到平價精品咖啡,高低價互相配合再滾出咖啡豆生意。

瑞薩大裁員 GlobalFoundries等著撿人才? 上網時間: 2013年02月19日

有不少精明的半導體業者積極尋求具經驗的日本專業工程師人才晶圓代工新秀 GlobalFoundries 也是其中之一,而且該公司正密切關注從瑞薩(Renesas)出走的人員。
景況不佳的瑞薩繼去年秋天針對總數為7,446人的40歲以上員工提出提早退休計畫後,又在上個月宣佈將進一步裁員3,000人;通常人們會認為,那些丟飯碗的成千上萬瑞薩員工恐怕無法再找到下一個全職工作,儘管他們是將一生奉獻給公司──而且那是發生在日本。
不過可能有數百位經驗老到的提早退休瑞薩工程師,有機會前往日本以外的晶片廠商開啟事業第二春──根據日本當地業界傳言, GlobalFoundries 正鎖定這些人才。
GlobalFoundries 位於美國紐約州Saratoga的新廠甫於 2月8日動土,該公司在紐約州當地雇用的人力已經超過2,000人,並預計在2014年底增加至3,000人;GlobalFoundries紐約州據點的人力配置,有九成是技術與營運職位。
在被問到是否有雇用日本籍工程師的計畫時,GlobalFoundries發言人表示:「我們確實雇用了一些具經驗的日本專業人才,但我們無法提供詳細數字或是所佔員工數比例。」
而根據一位日本產業界匿名消息人士指出,GlobalFoundries的日本辦公室已經聘僱了35名日本工程師,這些工程師已經準備好成為前往該公司美國紐約州據點任職的先遣部隊,未來還會有100~200名工程師陸續前往。
儘管目前並沒有官方統計數字,但據了解已經有許多日本半導體工程師離開前東家,前往位於韓國、台灣或中國的非日商企業任職;而這些日本工程師的半導體製程專業技能都是在原本任職的日本公司學到的。
於是GlobalFoundries 的紐約州Fab 8晶圓廠計畫如今看來時機正好,雖然該公司一開始根本沒想到可以借重前瑞薩工程師的專業能力。
在此同時,瑞薩員工對公司與主管的期望跌到史上最低;據統計,已有超過7,511位瑞薩員工在去年9月提出了提早退休申請,而該公司起初僅預計有5,000人左右提出申請。無預警的龐大提早退休申請數字被日本當地媒體大幅報導,並被視為是瑞薩員工出走潮的預兆。
根據一份以瑞薩現職與離職員工為對象、針對公司前景的“非官方”調查,有46%的受訪者認為「瑞薩將在幾年之後倒閉」,有32%的受訪者則認為「瑞薩將逐漸走下坡」,僅有6%的受訪者認為公司有機會緩慢復甦。
至於被問到瑞薩翻身的關鍵條件為何,有39%的受訪者受訪者都認為是「更好的管理團隊」;然而一位瑞薩的發言人表示,這份調查的回覆受訪者總共只有75人。
編譯:Judith Cheng
(參考原文: Yoshida in Japan: Renesas' cuts are GloFo's gain,by Junko Yoshida)