9個月來增加4千4百萬人
聯合國糧農組織經濟學家Abbassian警告，低收入糧食進口國是糧價上漲的第一線受害者，除了近期中東及北非動亂，未來包括拉丁美洲的玻利維亞以及非洲的莫三比克，都可能因為糧食短缺而引發動亂。
ＦＡＯ認為，還有許多國家仰賴糧食進口，如今成本大增，形成沉重的負擔，例如非洲的烏干達、尼日、索馬利亞；亞洲的吉爾吉斯和塔吉克；拉丁美洲的宏都拉斯、瓜地馬拉和海地，都飽受糧價上漲的壓力。
世界銀行週二也表示，全球食品價格指數從去年十月到今年一月飆漲十五％，較去年同期大增三成，距離二○○八年的歷史新高僅有三個百分點的差距。世銀估計，自去年六月以來，因糧價上漲，全球赤貧的淨新增人口達四千四百萬人。其中六千八百萬名消費人口陷入每日維生低於一．二五美元的貧窮線，二千四百萬人則因種植農糧獲利而脫離貧窮線。顯示糧價上揚對消費者的衝擊遠大於生產者。
恐引發拉美、非洲糧食暴動
世銀總裁佐利克（Robert Zoellick）指出：「糧價已達危險水位，全球有數以千萬的民眾陷入赤貧，受害最深的是那些半數收入都用來買糧食的人口。」
根據世銀的數據，過去半年食品大漲價，讓各國通膨飆升。去年十二月，印度的蔬果、牛奶及魚肉價格攀升，食品通膨來到十八．三％；中國最新公布的一月份食品漲幅也超過十％；蒙古因為口蹄疫及嚴冬，去年肉類價格較前年大漲三成。南韓甫公布的一月進口物價大漲十四％，創下二十三個月新高，其中進口小麥漲幅達七成。
東歐及中亞逾三分之一的國家，去年食品通膨都超過十％，塔吉克、喬治亞、吉爾吉斯尚未從金融海嘯中復原，又面臨糧食大量進口造成的經常帳赤字，而糧價上揚迫使政府降低關稅，也影響到國家財政。
在主要糧食作物中，以小麥漲幅最兇。世銀指出，去年六到十二月，全球小麥指標的美國墨西哥灣硬紅冬麥價格大漲七成五，各國不得不調控因應。例如印度提高小麥收購價，釋出囤糧來平抑國內價格；埃及也表示政府提供的麵包津貼已深入八成五的人口。來不及反應的國家只能眼看國內小麥飆漲，吉爾吉斯國內小麥價格大漲五成四，孟加拉漲四成五，斯里蘭卡也大增三成一。
其他主要穀物的國際價格如玉米，去年六到十二月漲幅為七成三，芝加哥黃豆期價過去半年漲三成一。稻米的國際價格相對穩定，約僅上揚十七％。
聯合國糧農組織進一步警告，全球小麥今年必須增產三到四％，才足以挽救糧價飆升的趨勢，否則，各國相繼囤糧及限制出口，將會造成更嚴重的惡性循環。
所幸還有一些正面因素抵銷全球糧價上漲的衝擊。首先是非洲當地作物如玉米、高粱、小米、樹薯等豐收，得以取代進口小麥及稻米的不足，讓最貧窮的部分非洲國家得以喘息。亞洲的泰國及越南去年稻米豐收，也與二○○八年病蟲害及歉收的狀況大不相同，基本供給面良好。
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:22833439~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK:4607,00.html
Food Price Hike Drives 44 Million People into Poverty
WASHINGTON, February 15, 2011 – Rising food prices have driven an estimated 44 million people into poverty in developing countries since last June as food costs continue to rise to near 2008 levels, according to new World Bank Group numbers released ahead of the G20 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in Paris.
“Global food prices are rising to dangerous levels and threaten tens of millions of poor people around the world,” said World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick. “The price hike is already pushing millions of people into poverty, and putting stress on the most vulnerable, who spend more than half of their income on food.”
According to the latest edition of Food Price Watch, the World Bank’s food price index rose by 15 percent between October 2010 and January 2011, is 29 percent above its level a year earlier, and is only 3 percent below its 2008 peak.
Among grains, global wheat prices have risen the most, doubling between June 2010 and January 2011. Maize prices are about 73 percent higher, but crucially for many of the world’s poor, rice prices have increased at a slower rate than other grains. Sugar and edible oils have also gone up sharply. Other food items essential for dietary diversity in many countries have increased, such as vegetables in India and China, and beans in some African countries.
According to Food Price Watch, the increase in extreme poverty (under US$1.25 a day) due to the price hike is associated with higher malnutrition, as poorer people eat less and are forced to buy food that is both less expensive and less nutritious.
In contrast to the 2008 food price spike, two factors have prevented even more people falling into poverty this time. One is that good harvests in many African countries have kept prices stable, especially for maize, a key staple. Another is the fact that the increases in global rice prices have been moderate and the outlook for the rice market appears stable.
Measures to address the recent round of food price spikes include expanding nutritional and safety net programs in countries where food prices are rising fastest, avoiding food export restrictions, and finding better information on food stocks. More investments in agriculture, the development of less food-intensive biofuels, and climate change adaptation, are also needed.
How the World Bank is helping:
The World Bank’s Global Food Crisis Response Program (GFRP) is helping some 40 million people in need through $1.5 billion in support. To date, over 40 low income countries are receiving or will receive assistance through new and improved seeds, irrigation, and other farm support and food assistance for the most vulnerable people. For example, in Benin, fertilizer provided through these resources led to the production of an extra 100,000 tons of cereal.
For the longer-term, the World Bank Group is boosting its spending on agriculture to some $6-8 billion a year from $4.1 billion in 2008.
In addition, we are supporting:
· The new Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP), set up by the World Bank in April 2010 at the request of the G20 to support country-led agriculture and food security plans and help promote investments in smallholder farmers. To date, six countries and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation have pledged about US$925 million to the program over the next three years, with $350 million received so far. Since its launch, GAFSP has approved and started disbursing grants worth $321 million to 8 countries - Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mongolia, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Togo.
· Advocacy for more investment in agricultural research, and for its improved effectiveness - including through the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research.
· Monitoring agricultural trade to identify potential food shortages.
· Coordinating with UN agencies through the High-Level Task Force on the Global Food Security Crisis and with Non-Governmental Organizations.
· IFC has significantly scaled up its investments in the sector, providing nearly $2 billion in fiscal 2010 along the agribusiness supply chain to boost agricultural production, increase liquidity in supply chains, improve logistics and distribution, and increase access to credit for small farmers.
The World Bank Group also supports wider measures to improve nutrition among vulnerable groups. Through Bank safety net programs such as conditional cash transfers, some 2.3 million school meals are provided every day to children in low income countries. The World Bank is also working with the World Food Programme to help feed 22 million children in 70 countries. Over the past decade, the World Bank has provided 98 million children with Vitamin A doses, information on improved child feeding practices, and de-worming.
To access Food Price Watch, go to:
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